Name: Superforecasting
Availability: InStock
Author: Philip E. Tetlock, PhD, Ten Gardner

Key Ideas

Chapter 1 Page 1: The Chimpanzee Challenge

Start with the 'Outside View' (statistics) before the specific case. Be a 'Fox' (adaptable), not a 'Hedgehog' (dogmatic). Break big questions into sma…

Chapter 2 The Fox and the Hedgehog 🔒

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Chapter 3 Breaking Down the Question 🔒

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Chapter 4 The Outside View 🔒

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Chapter 5 Dragonfly Eyes 🔒

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Chapter 6 Update Often, Update Small 🔒

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Chapter 7 Growth Mindset and the Leaderboard 🔒

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Chapter 8 The Limits of Prediction 🔒

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Chapter 9 Conclusion: The Future is Open 🔒

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Superforecasting

Tetlock's research shows that average citizens can

out-predict intelligence analysts. Success comes from

being a pragmatic 'Fox,' using statistical base rates,

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Superforecasting

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